An analysis carried out by Wells Fargo specialists, based on the consumer price index (CPI), found that turkey increased 23% compared to last year, plus the rise in costs of other products
Inflation has hit every pocketbook of Americans, but when major national holidays like Thanksgiving approach, the impact is felt even more. For example, the typical Thanksgiving dinner in 2022 could be based on a traditional turkey that would cost 23% more than last year.
According to a recent Wells Fargo report, “Is This the Year for Thanksgiving Dining Out?”, the cost of staple foods, from poultry to fruit, will exceed the total for food categories in home and food outside the home in the consumer price index (CPI). In other words, it might be cheaper to go out to dinner than to cook dinner this Thanksgiving.
Turkey prices alone are forecast to rise as much as 23% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to Wells Fargo analysts and report authors Courtney Schmidt and Brad Rubin.
In addition, these analysts warned that turkey supplies will be “more limited” due to the continued impacts of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
“Turkey prices rose after bird flu wiped out livestock earlier this year. While inventory has recovered, the cost per pound will be higher,” the authors noted.
Among other products that could be used for dinner, eggs, which have also been affected by the avian flu, have already risen 32.5%, while butter and flour have increased by 25.8% and 17.1 %, respectively, according to the analysts, who used August CPI data to show the cost increase since November 2021.
On the other hand, fruits and vegetables have had the lowest cost increase, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%.
As if that weren’t enough, there are some side ingredients that could be missing this year, like potatoes and cranberry sauce, due to weather issues and rising input costs this year. For example, cooler spring in Idaho and Washington delayed potato and onion crops, while higher temperatures in California, coupled with drought, “reduced yields of celery, carrot and onion crops,” according to the report. report.
“Cranberry sauce, a holiday food staple, will cost more on grocery store shelves as cranberry growers grapple with rising input costs,” the report continued.
This analysis found that the cost of groceries has risen so much that smaller families may choose to eat out for Thanksgiving dinner.
“According to the Consumer Price Index, the cost of eating out has risen more slowly than at home, so while eating out is considered a luxury, it’s a great value this year,” Rubin concluded.
For a family of four, the cost between eating at home and going out to a restaurant could be similar this year. But for a larger dinner party, it might be more beneficial to cook dinner at home.